Upcoming 2010 JCSDA Seminars

Accurate modeling of atmospheric absorption and constraints on surface properties are needed to improve atmospheric retrievals and impact of assimilated satellite data on the weather forecasts. AER has developed line-by-line models (LBLRTM and MonoRTM) that have been used in many centers (including the JCSDA) as reference in the development of fast transmittance parameterizations as well as the Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS) method for fast and numerically accurate parameterization of molecular absorption in the atmosphere. The line-by-line models are continuously validated and updated at AER. Recent updates have been made to the water vapor continuum in the microwave region and linemixing in the 4.3 micron CO₂ band, and improvements have been made in the modeling of the 2400 cm^-1 band head. The OSS model has been selected by EUMETSAT for the MTG-IRS L2 concept processor development and is among the candidate FRTM’s for integration in the future MTG operational ground segment. The focus of current and future OSS development is on refining our generalized training capability. A status of the models will be discussed. A description of the work in progress on the use of our dynamically updated global atlas of microwave surface emissivities (sample hosted at the JCSDA) in the production of land surface temperatures under cloudy conditions will be provided.

The ECMWF forecasting system continues to be world leading in terms of forecast performance in the medium range. Both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast products are continuously improved; in early 2010 a new model version with an increased spatial resolution is being introduced, which will help to maintain the positive performance trends. Research is focused on new data assimilation techniques, improved description of physical processes and development of enhanced ensemble prediction methods. Monthly and seasonal forecasts are also produced; the current El Nino event was predicted more than a year ago. Re-analyses are regularly produced and updated. In recent years the re-analysis shows global temperature trends over land areas that are significantly warmer than results from other data sets suggest.