New tropical cyclone formation product is operational for 2006 hurricane season The prediction of where and when a tropical cyclone will form is a very difficult task. Little guidance is available to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) from computer models. In response to this need, scientists in NESDIS-STAR and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere created a new product for Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP). The product combines the vertical shear of the wind, the sea surface temperature, and images in the water vapor channel from the GOES-East satellite to determine the probability that a tropical cyclone will form within the next 24 hours. The product also indicates the climatological probability of cyclone formation for a given region, so that areas where formation of a storm is more likely than it normally is can be identified. The product covers the area of forecast responsibility of the National Hurricane Center, and includes the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Oceans. STAR's product became operational in the NESDIS Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution in time for the 2006 hurricane season. The probabilities of formation are updated every six hours, and are available at: Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product along with all the information used to create the product.
The new product for tropical cyclone formation probability on 16 July 2006. The product shows areas where tropical cyclone formation is more likely than average in 5 degree by 5 degree boxes over the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Oceans. Existing tropical cyclones are located by red tropical cyclone symbols. |
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The figure at right shows an
example of the operational TCFP
product from the web site. This figure shows the departure of the formation probability
from the climatological value. It highlights regions in orange and red
where storm formation is more likely than normal. The plot also shows the
locations of existing tropical cyclones, since these are areas where
formation of a second storm is unlikely. On this day in July 2006,
Tropical Storm Carlotta was located in the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico,
where the red cyclone symbol is placed. The red square between 10°
and 15° N latitude and between 100° and 105° W longitude
shows where formation of a tropical cyclone was much more likely than
average. Hurricane Daniel formed in this region the next day.
