New Hurricane Probability Product
Figure. The probability of hurricane force winds at any time in a five day period after 1 AM central daylight time on 22 September 2005. This experimental product was available in real time on the National Hurricane Center web for all storms during the 2005 hurricane season. Submitted by Mark DeMaria, CoRP / RAMMB. |
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Many
factors contribute to the errors in hurricane forecasts including
uncertainty in satellite position and intensity estimates, and track,
intensity and wind structure forecast errors. A method to combine all
sources of error based upon historical probability distributions was
developed as part of a NESDIS
project funded by the
NOAA
Joint Hurricane Testbed. This new probability model provides estimates of the likelihood
of 34, 50 and 64 knot winds at any given location at 12 hour increments
from the beginning of each forecast period out to five days. The figure
below shows an example of the five day cumulative probability of hurricane
force (64 kt) winds for a forecast for Hurricane Rita from September of
2005. The probability code was provided to the National Hurricane Center
in Miami, where it was run on experimental basis in real time in 2005.
This product will provide emergency managers and other responders a new
quantitative tool which can be used for cost benefit analyses and to
optimize hurricane mitigation activities. 
