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This page lists upcoming seminars and presentations by STAR
scientists and visiting scientists. These seminars include the STAR
Science Forum and similar events. Presentation materials for
seminars will be provided when available.
Unless noted otherwise, all seminars take place in:
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
World Weather Building
Science Center, Room 707
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, MD 20746
For Presentation Authors:
If you are a presentation author and are going to be giving a talk
with slides for a STAR seminar, please see this list of
information and guidelines to assist you in preparing your slides for
addition to the STAR website.
Other Seminars
| Title |
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Behavior Related to Changes in the Upper Air Environment
Presentation (PDF, 5MB)
|
| Speaker |
Roger Weldon,
NESDIS / STAR / SMCD / OPDB |
| Date |
Friday, May 2, 2008, noon |
Dial-in
Information |
1-866-541-9958
Passcode: 2531766 and the leader's name, Ralph Ferraro |
| Abstract |
More than 400 tropical cyclones that occurred worldwide from
1999 through 2005 were examined. Changes in tropical cyclone
behavior were observed using geostationary satellite imagery and
archival data from the major tropical centers. The upper air
environment was observed on satellite data, with emphasis on 6.7
micrometer water vapor imagery, and forecast model winds and
temperatures between 500mb and 300mb. Seven categories of
tropical cyclone behavior, such as turns and intensity changes
were defined; and, 361 "events" were identified and analyzed.
Likewise, 6 categories of changes in the upper air environment
were defined; and, 376 "events" were identified from the tropical
cyclone cases.
Specific types of changes in the upper air environment were
found to be related to certain changes in tropical cyclone
behavior. Two specific types of tropical cyclone cloud patterns
were observed with weakening storms. Middle tropospheric dry air
that arrived at the cold cloud shield boundaries of tropical
cyclones at small angles and was ingested into the storms, was
correlated with spiral shaped "intrusions" in the storm cloud
pattern and weakening. Eye replacement cycles were also likely
with this type of environmental change. Opening of adjacent upper
air systems, that brought flow to the tropical cyclone cold cloud
shields at large angles was correlated with cloud pattern
deforming and weakening. Four types of environmental changes were
well correlated with storm formations and intensification.
Although the 153 right turns and 79 left turns were well related
to specific categories of upper air changes, the relationships did
not provide the quantitative information necessary for accurate
track forecasting. However, specific categories of environmental
changes related to turns were highly correlated with storm
intensity changes during or after the turns. Relationships found
in the study are likely to be useful in choosing model results,
when various model forecasts diverge. Overall, changes in the
adjacent upper air ridge and anticyclones made the greatest
contributions to changes in tropical cyclone behavior. The
eastward passages of short wave ridges in the westerlies, on the
poleward side of storms, was found to be a particularly important
type of environmental change affecting tropical cyclone behavior.
|
| Contact |
Ralph Ferraro, 301-405-0893 |
|