8. Risks

Risks associated with this science and technology roadmap include a number of overarching issues. The ultimate measure of risk is not being ready for the operational certification of a NOAA satellite. Delay in providing operational quality-assured data and products reduce the functional period of the satellites finite lifespan, effectively incurring significant infrastructure costs. Overarching risks are noted below. Specific science team activity risks are identified in Appendix VI Science Team Risk Assessments.

Calibration/Validation

Failing to calibrate and validate satellite data will increase uncertainties producing less accurate satellite retrievals, affecting the quality assurance of satellite data, and potentially leading to erroneous analyses and decisions based on that data. With the advent of new kinds of operational satellite ocean remote sensing data, NOAA must establish its own calibration and validation capacities to transition developmental data streams to NOAA operations, in particular for ocean surface winds, ocean color, and altimetry. A significant risk is getting initial and continuing operational calibration and validation activities recognized and funded within NOAA's budget process. It will also be necessary to obtain personnel with the appropriate skills and experience to accomplish these tasks. Accompanying the funding risk for skilled personnel is risk associated with inadequate calibration/validation tools. It is anticipated that some of this risk will be mitigated by the implementation of a collaborative computing environment. Independent of these factors is the risk associated with biased and or missing in-situ measurements for comparison, including the facilities for vicarious ocean color calibration. With respect to operational satellite ocean color instruments and data, the unfunded continuity of MOBY and the unfunded transition to an operational MOBY-II represents a nearly insurmountable risk to NPP/NPOESS VIIRS and GOES-R HES-CW, as well as the linking component for the entire existing satellite ocean color data record and its use as an ocean color climate data record.

Integration

Failing to adequately integrate oceanic and atmospheric research and infrastructure activities presents a budgetary and information technology risk through duplications, interoperability disconnects, and budgetary inefficiencies. Synergy and data fusion opportunities will potentially be lost.

Funding

Present funding levels do not adequately address the transition of research to operational capabilities and capacities. Tying up research funds through extended "operational" production of developmental products and data reduces research aimed at achieving NOAA's objectives; thereby precluding needed capabilities and capacities and reducing the number and types of possible operational products. This issue will become more dominant with the rapid expansion of operational satellites and kinds, quantities, and increased resolution of data.

Continuity

Continuity poses a significant risk to new operational satellite ocean remote sensing data. In particular, there is no current planned operational mission to follow the Jason-2 altimetry mission, presenting the significant risk of a break in the continuous exact-repeat altimetry data set, a crucial climate data record. Overlapping continuity is crucial for adequate satellite instrument calibration and continuity of climate data records. Long-term scatterometer ocean surface wind data is also in doubt. Another significant risk is the lack of any U.S. synthetic aperture radar mission, adversely impacting the availability of data for the U.S. National Ice Center, oil spill incident response, and coastal flooding. The U.S. currently must rely on costly and incomplete foreign data, posing added risk to the public and budgetary risk to the agency.

Workforce

As a very significant percentage of the SOCD approaches retirement within the next several years, coupled with routine turnover, the replacement of very specialized, skilled, experienced employees becomes a prominent risk to existing and planned research and development efforts. Additionally, turnover for all leadership positions will have occurred within the span of a little more than one year. Recent hiring efforts indicate that finding suitable replacements will be a significant task that can lead to notable interim gaps in scientific expertise and leadership. There is concern about the future availability of individuals with the necessary skills. There is no current graduate program that provides a basic standardized curriculum or broad foundation in satellite ocean remote sensing.

Outreach and Education

User outreach continues to be a risk area due to the public's lack of familiarity with and use of satellite ocean remote sensing data and products. Without user education and outreach the public will not be aware of the vast amounts of knowledge, data, and information that can be applied to their benefit, how to use them, and their significant socio-economic benefits. Much effort is needed to develop user pull for satellite ocean remote sensing data, without which program justification and continuity are at risk. Education, starting early and continuing through K-12+ curricula and life-long education, and regional applications outreach efforts with and for specific user groups are fundamental to this issue.

Organizational Barriers

SOCD resides at the juncture for transitioning developmental satellite data streams, applications, and products to operations. Consequently, SOCD must interact with users across the NOAA Mission Goals. The Mission Goals, in general, are not sensitive to the application of satellite ocean remote sensing to addressing their questions. SOCD expends significant effort toward getting integrated into program planning efforts; however, there are organizational barriers to getting included in the planning process, regardless of whether there is a fiscal consideration with regards to the program. Consequently, it is difficult to identify and document requirements needed to develop/justify satellite ocean remote sensing activities. The mission goal planning, programming, budgeting, and execution system (PPBES), is a challenge for research type activities and for ensuring continuity of funding for speculative efforts.

SOCD also resides at juncture for transitioning NASA ocean remote sensing efforts to NOAA operations. NOAA-NASA coordination and implementation planning are only just beginning. Differences in organizational philosophies between NOAA and NASA continue to result in friction. Funding currently provided for transition efforts is insufficient to address the magnitude of the tasks. The success of pilot transition endeavors in ocean color, ocean surface winds, and altimetry hinges on funding augmentation for NOAA to establish appropriate capabilities and capacities.

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