4.2 Links with Mission Goals and Programs
4.2.2 Climate
The guiding focus for the Climate Mission Goal is to understand climate
variability and change to enhance Society's ability to plan and respond.
Specific strategies include:
- Improve the quality and quantity of climate observations, analyses,
interpretation, and archiving by maintaining a consistent climate record
and by improving our ability to determine why changes are taking place.
- Improve the quantification and understanding of the forces bringing
about climate change by examining relevant human-induced increases in
atmospheric constituents.
- Advance sub-seasonal to inter-annual climate predictions and climate
change projections by improving analysis of the climate system, using
ensembles of multiple, high-end climate and Earth system models.
- Develop the ability to predict the consequences of climate change on
ecosystems by monitoring changes in coastal and marine ecosystems,
conducting research on climate-ecosystem linkages, and incorporating
climate information into physical-biological models.
- Develop and contribute to routine state-of-the-science assessments
of the climate system for informed decision-making.
- Work with customers in order to deliver climate services and
information products involved in health, safety, environmental,
economic, and community planning that increase the effective application
of this information.
- Coordinate among NOAA Line Offices the transition from investigator-
driven research projects to operational facilities, capabilities, and
products.
- Support educational efforts to create a more climate-literate public
by developing climate educational materials, involving teachers in the
research process, and generating tools to allow climate information to
be used in decision-making.
The following SOCD-relevant research priorities have been established
by the Climate Mission goal.
- Develop an integrated global observation and data system for routine
delivery and attribution of past and current state of the climate and
climate forcing
- Produce Climate Data Records
- Report on state of knowledge of decadal variability, the
monitoring ability for this, and potential decadal predictability
- Routine reports on detection/attribution studies linking
observing capabilities with model projections
- Implement next generation reanalysis capability
- Deploy prototype Arctic observing system for monitoring sea ice,
heat content, freshwater, and ecosystem indicators with partners
- Routine assessments of sea level rise and required observing capabilities
- Establish Indian Ocean climate observing system
- Document and understand changes in climate forcing and feedbacks,
thereby reducing uncertainty in climate projections
- Produce regional oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake maps
- Improve skill of climate predictions and projections and increase
range of applicability for management and policy decisions
- Develop dynamic understanding of decadal variability and predictability studies
- Improved summertime forecasts with analyses of field-driven monsoon data
- Develop multi-model based operational seasonal forecast system
- Develop probabilistic predictions for week-2 extreme events
- Understand impacts of climate variability and change on marine
ecosystems to improve management of marine ecosystems
- Ten-year trends in coastal chlorophyll and assessments of climate influence
- Track and improve the ability to forecast, the relationships
among climate and variations in coral cover, bleaching, and
anthropogenic impacts on coral reefs
- Detailed models of coastal inundation and ecosystem change for
specific areas for use by land use managers
- Enhance NOAA's operational decision support tools to provide climate
services for national socio-economic benefits
- Develop new experimental tools (including methods, models, and
educational and outreach resources) that communicate climate
information and deliver techniques for incorporating that
information/analysis into specific decision scenarios.
- Implement prototype decision support tool for water management
linking historical, current, next season, and decadal outlooks
- Identify key climate-sensitive issues at regional scales
- Develop prototype methods for the application of climate
information to practical challenges associated with natural resource
management and hazard mitigation
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Climate Program Links
- Climate observations and analysis: Specific links to be
established. Sea-surface temperature and sea-surface height data and,
recently, ocean color data are employed to monitor ocean aspects of
variability and climate change.
- Climate predictions and projections: Specific links to be
established. Sea-surface temperature, sea-surface height, and ocean
surface wind data contribute to climate modeling efforts. Ocean data
assimilation efforts through the JCSDA have only just begun.
- Climate and ecosystems: Specific links are being
established. Sea-surface temperature data are employed through the Coral
Reef Watch effort and a new requirement for ocean color data to monitor
phytoplankton has been stated for the monitoring of sentinel species.
- Regional decision support: Specific links to be
established. OceanWatch efforts to establish climatological products
will support this program.
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